After 5th of October 2000...

After 5th of October 2000, political change has occurred and we are now in a process of transition. It is too early to say, whether extensive and profound futures research will re-emerge. For the moment, we are living a paradox, as if the model of the desirable future is fully known, all we have to do is apply it.

This is the outcome of the prevailing aim among the ex socialist countries to become part of the European integration process, Partnership for Peace, NATO, that is, the future is to become part of the developed West, globalizing world. For that reason there is not much inter/regional trade or integration in the Balkans, each country is running for itself toward the distant Europe. The historical specificities, social costs of hasty reforms are easily overlooked.

This is however, a reflection of a phenomenon that is global. i.e. not many alternatives, visions exist anywhere today. Perhaps, once some firm ground is reached, the first phase of transition is accomplished, the visionary thread will emerge, and the interest for futures studies will reappear. Reforms of the educational system are now being initiated and there is reason to believe that space will be created for new contents, including futures studies.

However, since the political changes have not ended some of Yugoslavia’s greatest uncertainties, the overwhelming pressure of the immediate present may still continue for some time. As far as the Yugoslav youth is concerned their vision of the future is to become part of the western glittering, consumption society, the future is in the external world, the EU.

If generalizations are allowed, youngsters here have, by and large, felt deprived of a normal life, normal communications with their counterparts in Europe, i.e. of material means and visas. Now they are, as some of my students have said, “hungry for consumption”, eager to travel and if possible find good jobs outside of Yugoslavia. Their future is related to their personal, immediate betterment. No great visions, collective concerns are attractive.

However, keeping up with the high-tech developments, particularly in information sciences is important, as well as ecological concerns. Ecological concerns have grown particularly after the NATO bombing and the use of depleted uranium. It will take some dwelling in relative normal circumstances before their creative, visionary energy is rekindled. Previous…