ভূমিকা
Shiavault - a Vault of Shia Islamic Books Futures Studies in the European Ex-socialist Countries FUTURES STUDIES IN THE USSR (1966-1991) AND IN RUSSIA (1991-1999) IGOR BESTUZHEV-LADA Futures studies in the USSR/Russia leave by roots in the precocious futurology of the end 19th and beginning 20th centuries, when some outstanding European, American and Russian scientists - D. Mendeleev, I. Metc.hnikov, K. Ziolkowsky and others in Russia - have acted in their works with reflections about the future.
In 20s some books and many articles on this theme were published, including that of V. Bazarov-Rudnev in 1924-28 with a statement of the concept of the problems-goals approach to the future, which is now basis of modern technological forecasting. But it was not to understand for contemporaries, was forgotten for decades and was entered into futures studies literature in 80th only.
Since the end of 20s and till the middle of 50s the Stalin’s political regime has liquidated all studies in social sciences, including the sphere of the future. There was only imitation of “scientific prediction” in dogmas of “scientific communism”.
Forecasting Boom in the USSR of 60s In the middle of 50s the thawing of Krushchev’s reforms has resulted in some revival of social sciences and during the first half of 60s some books and articles “about the future in general” were published, but not yet supported with any special studies (I. Lada: If World Disarms, 1961; G. Dobrov and A. Golian-Nicolsky: Century of Great Hopes, 1964; I. Lada and O.Pisarzhevsky: Profiles of the Future, 1965, and others).
But such publications were permitted only by way of the comments to the new political program of the Soviet communist party therefore it was necessary to state the forecasts by the language of Esope. The situation was changed in 1966 only, when the third perestroyka , i.e. Kossyguin’s liberal reforms, was begun (the first was Lenin’s new economic policy of 1921-29, and the second - the thaw of Krushchev’s liberal reforms of 1956-64).
During all three perestroykas attempts were made to revive an realised utopia of barracks socialism by some liberalisation of the political regime, including loosing of repression and censorship. But then the ruling circles curtailed reforms, which threatened their autocracy. In 1966 on the XXIII Congress of the Soviet communist party was decided to expand the problematic of economic planning by adding of social aspects and resting on “scientific base”.